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Philadelphia Fed economist looks ahead

  • Scott LaMar
In this Sept. 24, 2013 file photo, cut stacks of $100 bills make their way down the line at the Bureau of Engraving and Printing Western Currency Facility in Fort Worth, Texas. According to a study released on Tuesday, April 3, 2018, middle-aged Americans who experienced a sudden, large economic blow were more likely to die during the following years than those who didn’t. The heightened danger of death after a devastating loss, which researchers called a “wealth shock,” crossed socio-economic lines, affecting people no matter how much money they had to start.

 (AP Photo/LM Otero)

In this Sept. 24, 2013 file photo, cut stacks of $100 bills make their way down the line at the Bureau of Engraving and Printing Western Currency Facility in Fort Worth, Texas. According to a study released on Tuesday, April 3, 2018, middle-aged Americans who experienced a sudden, large economic blow were more likely to die during the following years than those who didn’t. The heightened danger of death after a devastating loss, which researchers called a “wealth shock,” crossed socio-economic lines, affecting people no matter how much money they had to start.

Airdate: Tuesday, February 28, 2023

Has there ever been an economy that has so many mixed signals?

Unemployment is near records lows and there are many, many job openings. But at the same time, some of the nation’s most successful corporations are laying off workers. Inflation is slowing down somewhat, but is still higher than it’s been in decades. Gas prices have gone back up, then down and who knows where they’ll be next week? Consumers are still spending money but interest rates, including mortgages are up.

Did the COVID-19 pandemic change what we thought we knew about the economy? Is our economy healthy or not?

Appearing on The Spark Tuesday was Ryo Tashiro, Senior Outreach Economist in the Research Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, who said traditional economic indicators are not straightforward right now,”If you look at what the current situation looks like, on the surface, it does look like a very healthy economy. We have very low unemployment rates both at the national and at the local levels. Inflation is very high, which is a byproduct of a rapid expansion. But at the same time, we’re hearing from different sources about potential layoffs, slowdowns and slowdowns of business investments, etc.. So, yes, we are seeing mixed signals. While it looks like the current indicators are looking strong, growth indicators seem to be fairly slow, particularly relative to the strong expansion that we experienced back in 2021.”

Tashiro was asked about what he sees for inflation in the coming months,”The global inflation data suggests that the worst may be behind us. The worst, the higher the peak of inflation might have hit a couple of months ago. And gradually it doesn’t look like the overall inflation has been more relaxed for the last couple of months or so. When you look at the underlying key drivers of inflation right now, much of that has to do with the increase in prices of what we call core services, particularly rent and homeowners that come out front. So essentially shelter. And if you look at the home price growth, the rental market, etc., the real time evidence suggests that even those prices are starting to increase at a much lower rate. So there might be some lagging factor in terms of data, which explains why we haven’t seen the data just yet. But unless something major occurs to reverse the course, it does look like we should expect even inflation on things like shelter should go down in the next couple of months or so.”

Tashiro indicated that as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to bring inflation under control, there probably will be more people unemployed. He said it’s hard to forecast what energy and food prices will be like. Tashiro believes there will be a recession however, “I don’t think we’re going to see a recession next month or even a month after that. And I think with the particularly with the labor market, the strong, it is going to take much longer for the economy to start seeing much more weaknesses. So, with the business cycle how it’s been going on, I do think that the recession unfortunately is coming at some point. But is it imminent? My answer would be no.

 

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