Political analysts expect Trump to make a play for Pennsylvania suburban voters with new SCOTUS nominee

The Supreme Court opening could galvanize each party’s base, rather than convince undecided voters in the key battleground state.

• Julia Agos/WITF
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  Julia Agos was a reporter and the host of All Things Considered for WITF.

(Lancaster) — Some analysts are expecting President Trump to use his third Supreme Court nominee to try to win over one key group of voters in Pennsylvania – white suburban women.

During his reelection bid, Trump has made appeals to a group he calls “the suburban housewives of America.” He narrowly won their vote nationally in 2016.

But polls consistently show this bloc of voters prefers Democratic candidate Joe Biden by double digits with six weeks left for people go to the polls.

Terry Madonna, Director of the Center of Politics and Public Affairs at Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster, says voters in the suburbs tend to be culture liberal – with a focus on gun control and concern for the environment.

“That is particularly true with college educated women,” Madonna said. “College educated women are by far President Trump’s most serious problem.”

Muhlenberg College political science professor Chris Borick predicts Trump will use his latest Supreme Court nominee to try to lure them back.

“The female suburban vote is a coveted bloc. The president has put a lot of effort into trying to make inroads into that group. This issue poses some risk in that area,” he said.

Borick said suburban women tend to favor abortion rights when it comes to reproductive issues, so President Trump will have to work to make sure his nominee will resonate with them.

The president has tried to use his “law and order” message instead to connect with such voters. He claims Biden “will destroy your neighborhood and your American Dream.”

Madonna points to the 2018 Midterm election results, when Democrats picked up 40 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, as evidence of the changing tide for Republicans with suburban voters. In 2018 Democrats picked up Pennsylvania’s Fourth and Fifth congressional seats, giving them control of four out of five seats in the Philadelphia region.

More than 20 percent of registered voters in the state live in Buck, Chester, Delaware and Montgomery Counties.

Both Borick and Madonna believe the Supreme Court opening will likely galvanize each party’s base, rather than convince undecided voters in the key battleground state.

Borick says this is especially meaningful for Biden.

“On his own, (Biden) might not be the darling of the left and more progressive voters, but he’s their candidate now. And if he is the way to prevent this seat from being filled, I think it gives them one more impetus to jump into this race,” Borick said.

A Franklin &Marshall College poll released Thursday showed Biden with a six-point lead among likely voters in the commonwealth. And seven out of ten voters said they are “very interested” in the race.

Both candidates have made several campaign stops in the Pennsylvania this month.

Biden gave a televised speech in Philadelphia over the weekend, calling for Justice Ginsburg’s replacement to be nominated by the winner of the November election.

President Trump is expected to hold a rally at Harrisburg International Airport Saturday night.

The campaign event is slated to come just hours after his planned event to announce the nominee, who Trump has said will likely be a woman, to fill Ginsburg’s seat.