US President Donald Trump makes statements to the media at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Wednesday, Jan. 22, 2020. Trump's two-day stay in Davos is a test of his ability to balance anger over being impeached with a desire to project leadership on the world stage.
David Wenner has worked for The Patriot-News/PennLive since 1999 and has won numerous awards for his reporting. He often writes about health care as well as breaking news. He appreciates knowing about any important, troubling or otherwise newsworthy situation in central Pennsylvania. He can be reached at email@example.com or 717-255-8172.
(Lancaster) –If the presidential election were today, only about 37 percent of Pennsylvanians would vote for President Donald Trump, according to a new poll focusing on four battleground states which may well decide the 2020 election.
About 47 percent of Pennsylvanians would vote for the Democratic candidate (the poll didn’t name one) challenging Trump, according to The Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes Poll. The poll found a good chunk of Pennsylvania voters – 16 percent – were undecided.
In a separate question, the poll found Joe Biden as the Democratic presidential candidate with the most support in Pennsylvania.
The four states surveyed in the poll – Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin – have histories of favoring Democratic presidential candidates, but supported Trump by slim margins in 2016.
The poll suggests Trump has lost the most ground among women, most notably in Michigan, where only 27 percent of women said they would vote for him.
The Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes Poll involved slightly more than 1,000 voters in each of the four states. It was conducted Jan. 8-20 and has a margin of error of about 3 percent. The university will be polling in the four states throughout the 2020 election cycle.
Cheryl Senter / AP Photo
Democratic presidential former Vice President Joe Biden greets supporters after speaking at a campaign event in Nashua, N.H. Sunday, Dec. 8, 2019:
The poll found the strongest Trump support in Ohio, where about 39 percent said they would vote for him, with about 44 percent saying they would vote for the unnamed Democrat. In both Michigan and Wisconsin, about 34 percent said Trump would get their vote, with about 48 percent in Wisconsin favoring the Democrat, and 47 percent of in Michigan favoring the Democrat.
As with Pennsylvania, the poll found enough undecided voters to easily shift the balance in Trump’s favor — about 19 percent in Michigan, 18 percent in Wisconsin and 16 percent in Ohio.
The poll found women leaning more strongly against Trump. In Pennsylvania, about 35 percent of women said they would vote for Trump, with 49 percent saying they would vote for the Democrat and 16 percent were undecided.
In Ohio, about 34 percent of women favored Trump, about 46 favored the Democrat, and about 20 percent were undecided. In Michigan, only about 27 percent of women surveyed said they would vote for Trump, while 53 percent said they would vote for the Democrat, and about 20 percent were undecided.
In Wisconsin, 28 percent of women favored Trump, about 52 percent favored the Democrat and about 20 percent were undecided.
AP Photo/Matt Rourke
Attendees cheer ahead of a President Donald Trump campaign rally in Hershey, Pa., Tuesday, Dec. 10, 2019. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)
The poll further asked respondents whether they were “almost certain” to vote against Trump no matter which Democrat he runs against, or whether they are almost certain to vote for Trump regardless of the Democratic nominee.
In Pennsylvania, about 46 percent said they are almost certain to vote against Trump, while about 33 percent are certain they’ll vote for him. In Michigan, about 49 percent said they were certain they would vote for the Democrat with only 29 percent expressing near certainty of a vote for Trump. About 47 percent of Wisconsin voters and 45 percent of Ohio voters expressed near certainty of a vote against Trump, while about 31 percent of Wisconsin voters and about 35 percent of Ohio voters saying they were near certain to vote for Trump.
Asked about their top issues, the number one issue was the economy, followed by health care and security issues including terrorism, border security and foreign policy.
Regarding their first choice for the Democratic candidate, about 31 percent of Pennsylvania Democrats favored Joe Biden, about 21 percent favored Bernie Sanders, about 11 percent favored Elizabeth Warren, about 9 percent favored Mike Bloomberg and about 7 percent favored Pete Buttigieg.
Biden was the favored Democrat in each state except Wisconsin, where about 28 percent favored Sanders, compared to about 22 percent favoring Biden.
Regarding overall satisfaction with Donald Trump, he fared best in Ohio, where 48 percent said they strongly approve or somewhat approve of Trump’s performance as president. His approval rate was about 44 percent in Pennsylvania, about 41 percent in Wisconsin and about 40 percent in Michigan.
John Bazemore / AP Photo
Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., speaks as Democratic presidential candidate former Vice President Joe Biden listens during a Democratic presidential primary debate, Wednesday, Nov. 20, 2019, in Atlanta.
Poll respondents were asked their views on whether Trump should be removed from office as a result of the impeachment trial which began in the U.S. Senate this week.
In Pennsylvania, about 49 percent said they either strongly support or somewhat support removing him from office, while about 44 percent expressed opposition to removing him. Support for removing him was slightly stronger in Michigan and Wisconsin, with about 50 percent in each state favoring removal.
In Ohio, the number who support removing him and those who oppose it was nearly even, with 46.9 supporting and 46.1 percent opposing.
The poll found about 54 percent of respondents in each state favored using a national popular vote to elect the president rather than the present system of the electoral college.
It further found majorities in each state have little trust in news obtained from social media. That included about 66 percent in Wisconsin who said they have little or no trust in news from social media, about 60 percent in Pennsylvania, about 60 percent in Ohio and about 61 percent in Michigan.
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