GOP-heavy 12th district set for special election

(Harrisburg) — Voters in Pennsylvania’s 12th Congressional District will choose a new representative earlier than expected.

A special election will coincide with Pennsylvania’s primary election, May 21, after a surprise resignation. 

Republican Congressman Tom Marino resigned, saying he’s leaving for a job in the private sector.

He just won reelection in the 2018 midterm election with 66 percent of the vote.

Democrat Marc Friedenberg, who challenged Marino last year, has already announced his candidacy for the special election.

Bucknell University political science professor Scott Meinke said he would expect Democrats to try to take advantage of this opening.

“But it would be a long shot,” he said. “This is a district that voted for Donald Trump by 36 percentage points in 2016, so it’s one of the most Republican districts in the state.”

Democrats’ chances are slim in the district, which includes Perry, Snyder Union, Juniata, and Mifflin counties and most of Northumberland County.

Republican voters already tend to be more reliable in off-year elections. Though, Meinke noted, there have been exceptions.

“When the energy swings to the other side, because of trends in national politics like we saw in Conor Lamb’s surprise victory in the old 18th District last year, that can go against that trend with special elections,” he said.

Meinke said Democrats’ likelihood of winning could improve slightly if national politics look bad for the GOP as the special election approaches, or if the Republican candidate is flawed.