Governor Josh Shapiro speaking at a September 2023 event in Pittsburgh.
Commonwealth Media Services
Party-backed candidates strong in Pa. primary, setting up major midterms this fall
Pa. political experts analyze primary results and public opinion.
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Jordan Wilkie/WITF
Commonwealth Media Services
Governor Josh Shapiro speaking at a September 2023 event in Pittsburgh.
Low Pennsylvania primary turnout and races that followed the party line shed light on what voters can expect this November. As sleepy as the primaries were, political analysts expect high turnout, lots of political spending and hotly contested races in the fall.
This election will decide which party will control the state Legislature, which could have long-term impacts on national politics. With three Congressional races considered toss-ups by the Cook Political Report, control of the U.S. House of Representatives also runs through the Keystone State.
One of the primary’s most surprising results is how well party-backed candidates performed, according to Stephen Medvic, a politics professor at Franklin & Marshall College.
“Even in a time where people are really unhappy with politics as usual, the party establishments did pretty well,” he said.
On the Democratic side, that’s a boon for Gov. Josh Shapiro. Candidates with his endorsements swept their races. And for Republicans, incumbent wins by senators Lisa Baker, Camera Bartolotta and Chris Gebhard means the party has a better shot at maintaining its control in the state Senate. That’s because established politicians tend to perform better in general elections. Those Republicans defeated primary challengers backed by the skill games industry that is trying to loosen state regulations.
These political considerations matter, as Democrats have a one-seat majority in the state House with every seat up for election. In the state Senate, Republicans have a four-seat majority with half of the state’s 50 slots up for election.
Both parties say it is possible to win both chambers, though Medvic said several factors are leaning in Democrats’ favor. Republicans currently control both chambers of Congress and the White House, and the nation is navigating high gas prices and an unpopular war with Iran. This could end up helping the Democratic candidates, according to polling that shows many voters blame President Donald Trump and Republicans for these issues.
“People feel very negatively about the economy. They elected President Trump and his administration to solve the issues with the economy, and he hasn’t done that,” said Berwood Yost, who leads public opinion polling at Franklin & Marshall College. “It’s gotten worse.”
Yost said these feelings could trickle down to local races on the ballot, too.
In contrast, Shapiro has high approval ratings, and incumbent governors in Pennsylvania often win reelection by double-digit margins. Yost said he also expects Democrats across the board will get a boost from having Shapiro on the ballot.
Even with all these considerations, Yost said he expects several races to be very close, with control of the state Legislature and the U.S. House of Representatives in the balance.
The political stakes are high for Shapiro. If the political wave breaks his way, it could set him up for a strong presidential run in 2028. Taking full Democratic control of the state Legislature will allow state Democrats to put a series of bills in front of Shapiro for him to sign. It will also help ease the perpetual headache of taking months past the July 1 state constitutional deadline to negotiate a budget with Republicans.
If Shapiro helps flip seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, that will also contribute to his reputation as someone who can win tightly contested races, and deliver important seats for the Democratic party.
Control of the Pennsylvania Senate
With narrow margins, control of every seat matters. Republicans have reason to be hopeful about one Lancaster County senate seat, Yost said.
In a 2025 special election, Democrat James Malone unexpectedly beat his Republican opponent in a district made up predominantly of registered Republicans.
But in that election, turnout was only 29%, Yost said, and keeping the seat will be a high hill to climb with typical midterm voter turnout. What’s more, Malone’s challenger, Republican Tom Jones, is a current representative in the state House and has the backing of his party.
Stelson and Perry gear up for negative ads and big spending
In Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional district, Yost said he expects a “really, really close race and probably lots and lots of ugly advertising” between Democratic nominee Janelle Stelson and incumbent Republican Rep. Scott Perry.
Per WITF’s previous reporting, Stelson won her primary race Tuesday with close to 70% of the vote. Perry ran unopposed. The district includes all of Dauphin County, with most of Cumberland and York counties.
In 2024, Perry beat Stelson by just over 5,000 votes, his narrowest victory in 12 years in office. Both candidates have raised more than $4.4 million so far, according to Federal Election Commission data from the end of April. Going into the general election, Stelson has $3.3 million in cash on hand compared to Perry’s $2.2 million. Medvic said he expects much more money to flow into the race by November.
Stelson’s victory speech alternated between making promises of what she’ll deliver if she wins — reproductive rights, lower healthcare costs, fighting corruption in Washington, funding Social Security — and attacking Perry.
“He voted for the tariffs that are driving up the prices. He voted to strip millions of Americans of their healthcare,” Stelson said.
In a statement released Wednesday morning, Perry attacked Stelson’s character, calling her a carpetbagger and a racist. Stelson worked in local TV news in Central Pennsylvania for 30 years. She owns a home just over the line into the 11th District and now rents a home in Cumberland County within the 10th District, which is where she registered to vote. The racism accusation comes from a clip of on-air banter at the end of a news broadcast when Stelson made a joke about Asian people eating cats, a broad and dated stereotype that has long been used to demean people of Asian descent.
These attacks are likely meant to divide Democratic voters, Yost said.
Perry himself has been criticized for antisemitic and xenophobic statements several times in recent years. As reported by other news outlets, Perry has shared an antisemitic meme, made comparisons between Democratic Party and Nazi policies and leadership, made comments seemingly in partial support of the “great replacement theory” which experts say is a tool for antisemitic and xenophobic political messaging, and said “the KKK is the military wing of the Democratic Party.”
In 2024, Perry made inaccurate statements attempting to tie neo-Nazis that marched in Harrisburg to left-wing policies. At the time, WITF reported that other local elected officials condemned the neo-Nazis, which researchers say is a key step in preventing political violence.
Produced with assistance from the Public Media Journalists Association Editor Corps funded by the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, a private corporation funded by the American people.
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