Democrats in a Central Pa. county had a good year. Does that mean blue wave will ensue in 2026?

• By Jade Campos / LNP | LancasterOnline

Tuesday was a big day for Democrats.

The party flipped control of the school boards and municipal boards in Manheim and East Hempfield townships, two of the most-populated municipalities in Lancaster County. Democrats also won an expensive fight to keep three state Supreme Court judges on the bench.

But among those who follow county politics, the true impact of Tuesday’s election for Democrats remains a matter of debate.

Ethan Demme, a former Republican turned independent in East Lampeter Township, said it’s clear that a “blue wave” rolled over the county Tuesday. He cited not only Democrats’ wins but also the slimming margins in races won by the GOP.

Democratic candidates for Elizabethtown school board didn’t register any wins but made significant gains in total votes. In 2021, the Democratic candidate with the least votes received 10.96% of the vote compared to the highest performing Republican candidate with 17.96%. This year, that spread between them tightened to 11.84% and 13.25%, respectively.

On the other hand, Diane Topakian, former chair of the Lancaster County Democratic Committee, cautioned party leaders against being too optimistic heading into next year’s midterm elections. Democrats will probably have to wait a few more election cycles before they can make significant gains in heavily conservative areas of the county, despite the momentum generated by this year’s election, she said.

“I don’t think this was a blue wave. I think it was an emotional vote, a ‘Let’s get down to business’ vote,” Topakian said. “This is a long-term struggle. It’s not going to be fixed in one election by any means. We have a lot of work to do.”

Stephen Medvic, a Franklin & Marshall College political scientist, said Tuesday’s results were not unusual. He said the president’s party is always at a disadvantage during municipal and midterm elections. Democrats and some left-leaning independents, he said, turned out in droves because they’re feeling motivated to make a change and also are angry at President Donald Trump’s administration.

Strong emotions led to a “stunning” voter turnout Tuesday, Medvic said. A whopping 43% of registered Lancaster County voters showed up to the polls. Compare that to just 16% of registered voters who submitted a ballot in the 2013 municipal election.

Medvic attributed the turnout boost to a sweeping nationalization of politics that is pushing more people to become engaged during off-year elections. If Trump’s approval ratings remain low and grocery prices high, Medvic said, the Democrats’ gains this year could mean good things for the party in next year’s congressional races.

“This year suggests (2026) will be a big wave, but who knows if the same conditions hold,” he said.

‘A winning strategy’

Manheim Township and Hempfield Democrats were the big winners in Lancaster County on Tuesday night. While voting has trended toward Democrats for several years in those areas, Shelley Castetter, a local Republican campaign consultant, was still surprised to see the GOP lose its footing in suburban municipalities just outside Lancaster city.

“In all honesty, I’m still trying to pick my mouth off the floor,” Castetter said.

Demme praised the campaigns waged by Hempfield Democrats, particularly the East Hempfield Forward slate in the board of supervisors race. He said the candidates knocked on doors — a lot of them — and didn’t engage in “culture war” issues.

Voters are tired of listening to politicians argue about book bannings and gender identity issues, Demme said, and want to get back to a boring government that focuses on “kitchen table issues” like high grocery prices and traffic congestion. Hempfield Democrats did that, he said.

“That’s a winning strategy.”

Topakian agreed that door-to-door canvassing proved to be key to Democrats’ success, not just in Lancaster County. She pointed to New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani, known for his subway rides and street corner glad-handing of voters across the city’s five boroughs that led to a historic win for the self-described democratic socialist.

Ann Womble, former Lancaster County GOP chair and a vocal critic of President Donald Trump, said Mamdani’s success was unique. The real story, she said, is that Democratic victories nationwide, even in Lancaster County, were a product of moderate candidates. It’s a lesson Republicans could learn, she said.

“Trumpism is not popular, and it’s not a sustainable thing for the party to hitch itself to,” Womble said.

Red areas still vote GOP

But moderate campaigns fueled by heavy voter engagement still didn’t work for Democrats in several Republican strongholds in Lancaster County. While Ephrata Democrats fielded a historic full slate of candidates across every open office, they didn’t earn a single win. Elizabethtown Democrats partnered with moderate Republicans to show unity in the contentious school board race, and they failed.

Why?

Warwick GOP Chair Scott Felty and Ephrata GOP Chair Glen Beiler attributed successes, though slim in some races, to their candidates’ moderate messaging. Beiler said Ephrata candidates have purposefully stayed away from contentious social issues and have doubled down on keeping taxes low, which resonates with more people.

Felty noted Republicans outnumber Democrats 2 to 1 in the Warwick area, so it’s only natural that the party would perform better as long as Republicans show up to the polls.

Still, he said he’s noticed the margins closing between the parties more and more every year, surmising that 10% to 15% of Warwick Republicans are supporting Democratic candidates in at least some races. Trump has brought in a working-class base composed of younger men and Hispanic voters who aren’t likely to turn up to vote unless he is on the ballot, Felty said, while some older, white and affluent Republicans are voting for Democrats.

“I wish I could identify them (the traditional Republicans casting votes for Democrats) and talk to them to get their feedback because I always want to listen to any perspective and understand what’s going on there,” Felty said.

Path to 2026

Lancaster County Democratic Committee Chair Tom O’Brien said he feels good about where the party stands. The committee gets bigger every year, he said, and the shrinking margins in places like Elizabethtown and Warwick are a welcome success.

“I think we’re on the right track, and I truly believe we’re going to have subsequent victories in the next decade,” O’Brien said.

One area in particular that Democrats are eyeing next year is the 41st House District, where Republican Brett Miller has served for 10 years. After Tuesday’s victories in Hempfield and a close mayoral race in Columbia (both areas are within the district), O’Brien said the Democrats could secure another major win.

Democrat Brad Chambers, a Columbia resident who ran an unsuccessful campaign to unseat Miller in 2024, has already announced plans to run for the seat again next year.

Kirk Radanovic, the Lancaster County GOP chair, did not respond to a request for comment.

Castetter said good candidates will be key to the success of both parties in 2026.

It’s a simple idea, but she said finding the right person to run for office is the primary reason for Democrat James Malone’s historic upset over Republican county commissioner Josh Parsons in the March special election for state Senate in the 36th District. Parsons, she said, was not a well liked or relatable candidate; Malone was.

Malone’s seat is hardly safe heading into 2026 — voters in many of the district’s municipalities stood by Republicans in the municipal elections. But Medvic said Malone could still benefit from voters souring on the Trump administration.

If Republicans want to find success in competitive seats like Malone’s or Miller’s, Medvic said, they may have to be willing to separate themselves from Trump.

“If they start to read the tea leaves and read polls, there’s a double-digit shift toward the Democrats that’s likely to happen again in 2026,” he said. A winning strategy for Republicans next year, Medvic said, could be, “(Tell voters to) ignore all of the national stuff and focus on the hyperlocal. Say ‘I’m a different kind of Republican.’ ”

Womble said Democrats also need to change their message if they’re going to make meaningful gains in more conservative areas of the county. The party has focused too much on “identity politics,” she said, and pinpointing candidates who check off all of the same policy boxes.

Womble argued Democrats need to find more nuanced people who will fit the area they want to represent. For the majority of regions in Lancaster County, that could mean candidates who have some conservative beliefs, like being anti-abortion.

“I do think there are signs here that the Democratic Party is starting to get its act together in understanding what it is to beat back,” Womble said. “They’re starting to learn, I think, that trying to hold all candidates to some big litmus test of positions you have to have on every major issue is not going to work if they want to … possibly retake the Senate.”

Lancaster County’s leading GOP elected official, U.S. Rep. Lloyd Smucker, said Friday that he doesn’t think the 2025 election results will have much bearing on next year’s midterms.

“I think Republicans still have the right message,” he said while touring the Blessings of Hope food bank in Lancaster city. “We have delivered on what the voters have asked us to do just a year ago. We’ve made incredible progress on all of those promises in the past year.”

He added “I think you’re gonna see a strong economy going forward. I think people are gonna be feeling good about what’s happening in their pocketbooks, what’s happening through their families.”