But while the number of new cases may be dropping, the city is still not testing anywhere near the number of people officials say they want to each day, and the plan to contain outbreaks using contact tracers is still being fleshed out. Nursing homes, which have been ravaged by the virus and account for more than half the city’s COVID-19 deaths, still haven’t received the funding or support promised them to test their residents and protect their staff.
Most public health officials acknowledge that as cities and states loosen restrictions, it’s unrealistic to expect that no new cases will pop up, especially with daily mass demonstrations protesting the killing of George Floyd and other incidents of police brutality. The goal, instead, is to make sure that cities are equipped to catch an outbreak should one occur, and prevent it from spreading too widely.
To do that, cities need to be testing on a large scale so cases can be identified early. They also need to set up squads of contact tracers to track down people who may have been exposed by those infected and advise them to isolate.
Overall testing low, but so is proportion of positive cases
Philadelphia has set a target of conducting 5,000 tests a day, but it’s been averaging about 1,700. Health Department spokesman James Garrow said that’s a function of demand, not supply.
“They want people to come in, and the public is just not,” Garrow said of some testing sites, noting that many have the capacity to test more than what they’re seeing, and are asking for help from the Health Department directing traffic to their sites. He said most sites could accommodate many more tests per day.
“Most ask people to call ahead for an appointment,” he said. If they saw a surge in demand, “they would just schedule folks further out.”
Garrow said the Health Department is currently working to increase knowledge of testing sites through social media, NextDoor posts, robocalls, and press conferences at health centers. There are 47 testing sites in Philadelphia, though several commercial pharmacies that usually perform tests are closed because of curfews and fear of looting. The city recently expanded its criteria so that anyone who has been exposed to someone with the virus can receive a test, with or without symptoms.
The city also has plans to roll out a new testing model that will include point-of-care tests that produce rapid results within 24 hours. Garrow said further details on the rollout of the overhauled testing system are not yet available.
Many health departments also use the proportion of test results that come back positive as a gauge for reopening. Compared to other cities hit hard by the coronavirus, Philadelphia is in good shape.
Illinois, for example, announced that regions could lift restrictions when less than 20% of test results were positive. Chicago, which just began its reopening process, is now at 11%. At the peak of the pandemic in Philadelphia, nearly 40% of tests were positive. According to city data released Thursday, that rate is now down to 7%.
Pennsylvania has not used this metric as a standard for reopening, but instead set a goal of testing 2% of the state’s total population. Health Secretary Rachel Levine announced the state had met its testing goal for the month of May: 283,000 tests. But that number reflects the number of tests administered, not the number of individuals, and many people receive multiple tests. An analysis by the Pennsylvania Capital-Star found the state, in fact, lagged behind its goal.