This is huge news and a potential political game changer of the highest order. By defecting to the D’s, Specter could give President Obama, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid a virtual Democratic lock on Congress. If, as expected, Al Franken is declared the winner of the disputed Minnesota U.S. Senate race, Specter’s switch would give the Democrats 60 votes in the Senate. They would be able to block any filibuster attempts by the Republicans.

In a statement released at noon today, Specter, however, warned that the Democrats would not be able to take his vote for granted. “My change in party affiliation does not mean that I will be a party-line voter any more for the Democrats than I have been for the Republicans. Unlike Senator Jeffords’ switch which changed party control, I will not be an automatic 60th vote for cloture. For example, my position on Employees Free Choice (Card Check) will not change. Whatever my party affiliation, I will continue to be guided by President Kennedy’s statement that sometimes Party asks too much. When it does, I will continue my independent voting and follow my conscience on what I think is best for Pennsylvania and America,” Specter wrote.

In fact, Specter has perplexed and often exasperated Republicans and Democrats alike during his three-decade-long run in the Senate for fiercely holding to an independent streak. Specter made the pitch in his statement that the Republican Party has left him, more than the reverse.

“Since my election in 1980, as part of the Reagan Big Tent, the Republican Party has moved far to the right. Last year, more than 200,000 Republicans in Pennsylvania changed their registration to become Democrats. I now find my political philosophy more in line with Democrats than Republicans,” he explained.

Reports indicate that President Obama reached Specter by telephone shortly after his announcement and expressed his great pleasure with the senator’s decision and offered his “full support.” Just a few weeks ago, Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell had urged Specter to switch parties and promised to help him raise funds but Specter insisted he wasn't leaving the GOP.

Specter, always a master at political gamesmanship, faced increasingly difficult odds of winning the Republican primary next year. First, there’s the matter of 200,000 fewer Republicans, many of whom come from the more moderate (Specter-leaning) suburbs of Philadelphia where he needed to score big numbers to secure the GOP nomination. Second, he would have had to overcome the challenges of former U.S. Congressman and former president of the conservative Club for Growth Pat Toomey whom he narrowly beat (1% of the vote, about 17,000 votes) in 2004, as well as conservative activist Peg Luksik. Both Luksik and Toomey have pointed to Specter’s decision to support President Obama’s economic stimulus bill as a motivation for their candidacies against him. Luksik wrote in a statement today, "It is clear that Arlen Specter stands with President Obama on a host of issues and with this decision, has gone home to the Democratic Party.”

Specter noted the GOP backlash he’s getting over that stimulus vote. “When I supported the stimulus package, I knew that it would not be popular with the Republican Party. But, I saw the stimulus as necessary to lessen the risk of a far more serious recession than we are now experiencing. Since then, I have traveled the State, talked to Republican leaders and office-holders and my supporters and I have carefully examined public opinion. It has become clear to me that the stimulus vote caused a schism which makes our differences irreconcilable. On this state of the record, I am unwilling to have my twenty-nine year Senate record judged by the Pennsylvania Republican primary electorate. I have not represented the Republican Party. I have represented the people of Pennsylvania,” he wrote.

So how is this seismic news playing with the GOP faithful back home? Republican Party of Pennsylvania Chairman Rob Gleason released this statement: "I am deeply disappointed in Senator Arlen Specter's decision to leave the Republican Party, as he has benefited from the support of our Party for many years. It is apparent that he chose to act in his own self-interest and put his political ambitions first. The Republican Party has room for conservatives and moderates because we are the Party of ideas.

"I, like many of my fellow Pennsylvania Republicans, took Senator Specter at his word when he said that he would not switch parties, and I believe he owes every Republican who has supported him over the last three decades an apology. I would urge Senator Specter to do the right thing and proactively return any and all campaign contributions he has received in recent months to run as a Republican in the upcoming election. I am sure that most, if not all, of these donors would not have supported a Democrat candidate. Senator Arlen Specter can rest assured that we are committed to winning this seat back for the Republican Party in 2010. I am confident that we will win this seat back." The state GOP lost 200,000-plus registered voters in the 2008 presidential election. Gaining back even a modest number of those folks will be a Herculean effort. Specter said today he would return campaign contributions to those who request them. I had been looking forward to a feisty primary battle between Specter and Toomey. Specter hinted in his most recent book, “Never Give In: Battling Politicians and Cancer in the Senate,” that the stress of his 2004 primary fight against Toomey might have led to his first bout with Hodgkins disease. I so wanted to ask Toomey if he thought he played a role in Specter's cancer diagnosis. I guess I’ll have to save that question now for the general election.

The temblor's already having aftershocks. Democratic State Representative Josh Shapiro says he will not run in the Democratic Senate primary. Joe Torsella, former head of the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia has been raising money at a furious pace for his Democratic Senate bid and says he is still in the race.

We will have continuing coverage of this important national and state political story on Radio Smart Talk Wednesday morning and Smart Talk TV Friday night at 8:30. Please join us and let us know what you think of Specter’s move. Shoot us an email at This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it .