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Analysis: Chinese tariffs expected to hurt central Pennsylvania

Written by Lisa Wardle | Jul 6, 2018 12:14 PM
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(Undated) -- China's retaliatory tariffs on United States' goods are expected have the greatest effect on counties that helped elect President Donald Trump in 2016, including portions of Pennsylvania, according to an analysis by The Wall Street Journal.

Farming and manufacturing centers will be hit hardest.

Moody's Analytics calculated how the tariffs will affect every county in the United States, based on how much gross domestic product in each region comes from industries that will benefit from the U.S. tariffs or will be hurt by Chinese tariffs. The Wall Street Journal then took that data and compared it to the 2016 election map. They found a strong correlation between areas that voted for Trump and those expected to suffer from tariffs.

No midstate county is expected to benefit from American-imposed tariffs more than they will be hurt by China-imposed tariffs. 

Some regions will likely suffer with more than 15 percent of their economies subject to the Chinese tariffs. Those counties are mostly in the northern portion of the midstate. Juniata County is expected to take the strongest hit, having 20 percent of its total economy effected by the tariffs. Dauphin and Cumberland counties may not notice much, if any, change as a result of the international trade fight; 2 percent or less of their economies are subject to the tariffs.

Here is the outlook for central Pennsylvania:

Adams:

  • Industry GDP hurt by tariffs: 14.9%
  • Industry GDP protected by tariffs: 2.1%
  • 2016 winner: Trump

Berks:

  • Industry GDP hurt by tariffs: 8.5%
  • Industry GDP protected by tariffs: 3.3%
  • 2016 winner: Trump

Cumberland

  • Industry GDP hurt by tariffs: 1.8%
  • Industry GDP protected by tariffs: 0.9%
  • 2016 winner: Trump

Dauphin

  • Industry GDP hurt by tariffs: 2%
  • Industry GDP protected by tariffs: 1.6%
  • 2016 winner: Clinton

Franklin

  • Industry GDP hurt by tariffs: 7.2%
  • Industry GDP protected by tariffs: 6.6%
  • 2016 winner: Trump

Juniata

  • Industry GDP hurt by tariffs: 20%
  • Industry GDP protected by tariffs: 1%
  • 2016 winner: Trump

Lancaster

  • Industry GDP hurt by tariffs: 8.1%
  • Industry GDP protected by tariffs: 2.1%
  • 2016 winner: Trump

Lebanon

  • Industry GDP hurt by tariffs: 15.1%
  • Industry GDP protected by tariffs: 2.1%
  • 2016 winner: Trump

Mifflin

  • Industry GDP hurt by tariffs: 18.3%
  • Industry GDP protected by tariffs: 11.3%
  • 2016 winner: Trump

Northumberland

  • Industry GDP hurt by tariffs: 17%
  • Industry GDP protected by tariffs: 1.8%
  • 2016 winner: Trump

Perry:

  • Industry GDP hurt by tariffs: 10.4%
  • Industry GDP protected by tariffs: 0.3%
  • 2016 winner: Trump

Schuylkill:

  • Industry GDP hurt by tariffs: 18.2%
  • Industry GDP protected by tariffs: 3.2%
  • 2016 winner: Trump

Snyder:

  • Industry GDP hurt by tariffs: 9.7%
  • Industry GDP protected by tariffs: 0.5%
  • 2016 winner: Trump

Union

  • Industry GDP hurt by tariffs: 6.5%
  • Industry GDP protected by tariffs: 1.1%
  • 2016 winner: Trump

York

  • Industry GDP hurt by tariffs: 7.5%
  • Industry GDP protected by tariffs: 4.4%
  • 2016 winner: Trump

See the full Wall Street Journal map for details about other counties across the United States.

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